Estimate your IUI pregnancy chance using age, trigger use, semen quality (normal or low), and which attempt you’re on. See per-cycle probability and cumulative odds estimates across the first three IUIs.
Methodology & Sources
What this estimates
This tool provides an estimated per-cycle chance of pregnancy for an IUI attempt and a cumulative chance across attempts 1–3. It blends (a) age-based baseline rates with (b) simple modifiers for semen quality, ovulation trigger use, ovarian stimulation/follicle response, endometrial thickness, and select history factors. Education only; not a diagnosis.
Baseline by age
Age bands are seeded from large IUI cohorts (typical OS-IUI). Rates are ~18% per cycle for <35 and ~12% for >40, with modest protocol effects. We smooth these values across ages.
Source: analysis of 92,471 IUI cycles: Muthigi et al., 2021.
Attempts & cumulative probability
Per-cycle rates are treated as roughly similar across early attempts in large datasets. Cumulative probability is calculated as 1 − (1 − p)n (independence approximation) with bounds to prevent unrealistic extremes.
Source: same cohort: Muthigi et al., 2021.
Semen quality (normal vs low)
“Normal/low” maps to post-wash total motile sperm count (TMSC): “normal” ≈ ≥9 million; “low” <9 million. Pregnancy rates are highest ≥9M and decline below; conceptions still occur at very low counts. We apply a mild positive modifier for “normal” and a graded reduction for “low.”
Source: 92k-cycle TMSC analysis: Muthigi et al., 2021.
Ovulation trigger (hCG)
Trials comparing urinary LH timing vs hCG trigger show similar pregnancy rates overall; some donor-sperm or subgroup data suggest small benefits to hCG. We model the trigger as neutral to slightly positive.
Examples: BJOG 2019; RBMO 2020; Frontiers Endocrinol 2020.
Ovarian stimulation & follicle response
We gently up-weight cycles with multiple mature follicles but warn about increased multiple-gestation risk. Modern data show only modest pregnancy gains with higher follicle numbers, while multiples rise sharply beyond two follicles (especially in younger patients).
Sources: Human Reproduction 2024; ASRM 2022 Committee Opinion.
Endometrial thickness
Very thin linings are associated with lower implantation (evidence largely IVF). We apply a small down-weight <~7 mm and keep effects modest within 7–14 mm.
Source: meta-analysis: Kasius et al., Reprod Biol Endocrinol.
AMH & ovarian reserve (advanced)
AMH reflects egg quantity, not quality. In OS-IUI, predictive value is mixed; we use only a very light modifier if entered.
Examples: ASRM 2020; Vagios et al., 2021.
Medications & protocol
For unexplained infertility, guidelines favor 3–4 cycles of letrozole or clomiphene + IUI, then IVF if unsuccessful. We assume typical oral-agent OS-IUI unless specified and keep protocol effects small.
Sources: ASRM 2020; ESHRE 2023.
Single vs double IUI
Recent reviews show no consistent benefit for double IUI over single IUI; we show single-IUI results and allow a small optional uplift when “double IUI” is selected.
Source: Cochrane 2021.
Ethnicity, BMI, PCOS, endometriosis (advanced)
These factors can influence outcomes, but effects are generally modest relative to age and TMSC. We allow small directional adjustments when provided.
Sources: Muthigi et al., 2021; ESHRE 2023.
Limitations
Estimates reflect population averages and simplified rules. Clinic protocols, diagnosis, and ovarian reserve can shift real-world success rates. Use clinician guidance to interpret results.
What’s next?
Tip: Many clinics reassess strategy after 3–4 IUIs. Discuss your numbers and next steps with your clinician.
Frequently asked questions
What’s a typical IUI success rate per cycle?
How much does age change success?
Do semen parameters matter?
Does using an ovulation “trigger” shot improve success?
How do cumulative odds work across several IUIs?
1 − (1 − p)^n. For example, 12% per cycle gives ~23% over 2 tries and ~32% over 3 tries (assuming similar conditions each time).Sources
- Cleveland Clinic – Intrauterine Insemination (IUI) (overview; expected ranges; factors affecting success).
- NHS – Intrauterine insemination (IUI) (general success discussion and eligibility; UK guidance).
- ASRM patient education (protocols, timing, and factors; see patient fact sheets on IUI and unexplained infertility).
- Cochrane Library – IUI in unexplained subfertility (review articles) (evidence on effectiveness across protocols).
Educational estimate only; not medical advice. Success rates vary by diagnosis, stimulation protocol, and clinic. Discuss your personal chances and next steps with your clinician.